Poland Earthquake Risk Transformation

Earthquake Risk Transfer for Poland; Short-term earthquake loss — Fig.1 - Hashed circles represent current Earling undercover regions.

Due to low-level seismicity in Poland, even one of the latest 5 years-long studies that brought over one hundred natural seismic events wasn't able to receive more than one greater magnitude 3.8 earthquake. Therefore generating a local profile for a region without having historical patterns that caused a noticeable earthquake is more complicated. Since July 2018 that Earling started monitoring Poland ground shaking patterns, it has been able to issue earthquake preparedness alert for at least 3 events greater magnitude 4 for the region.

If Poland had experienced a 50-year earthquake event in 2020, the affected GDP would have been about $20 billion, alongside $1.4 billion losses. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same type of event would range from about $15 billion to about $50 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and the increase in exposed assets (Poland Affected Provinces by Flood and Earthquake, 2015).

Poland short-term expected earthquake loss

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Fig.2 - Probable Maximum Loss - Mean return period in years. Poland earthquake Average Annual Loss is $188.81 million (Poland Disaster & Risk Profile, 2014).