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Why shakealert not working?

Earthquakes pose a significant threat to public safety, emphasizing the vital role of early warning systems in disaster preparedness. Among these systems, Earling's short-term earthquake risk models and ShakeAlert stand out, but a closer look reveals why ShakeAlert falls short in certain scenarios.

ShakeAlert, as an Earthquake Early Warning System, relies on instruments with inherent limitations that hinder its ability to issue alerts well in advance. It can provide only a few seconds of warning, a crucial but limited timeframe in the event of a seismic event. In contrast, Earling's short-term earthquake risk models have proven their mettle by accurately identifying high-risk seismic time-windows, often days ahead of an earthquake. These models leverage advanced predictive algorithms and machine learning techniques to analyze diverse data sources, including historical earthquake data, ground motion sensors, and geological information. This comprehensive data analysis allows Earling to deliver early warnings to experts and authorities, affording them precious time to initiate proactive measures and potentially mitigate damage and save lives.

One instance that sheds light on the difference in performance between ShakeAlert and Earling occurred during the California Magnitude 6.2 earthquake on December 20, 2021. ShakeAlert struggled to issue a timely alert for this event, leaving many unprepared. In contrast, Earling demonstrated its effectiveness by issuing alerts about a week before the earthquake, providing invaluable foresight to specialists in the risk management industry. Comments from USGS experts underscored ShakeAlert's limitations in issuing timely alerts for this earthquake, a scenario where Earling excelled.

Another example arose during the California Magnitude 6.2 earthquake on December 20, 2022. This seismic event caused significant damage, resulting in two fatalities and multiple injuries. Earling once again attempted to issue an alert, this time via email to the Southern California Seismology Center, about a week before the event. Regrettably, ShakeAlert underestimated the earthquake's magnitude and failed to issue an alert, mirroring its performance during the previous year's event.

In summary, while ShakeAlert plays a crucial role in earthquake early warning, its limitations become evident in scenarios where early and accurate alerts are essential. Earling's short-term seismic risk models excel in detecting high-risk seismic time-windows with precision, providing days of advance notice to experts and authorities. This disparity underscores the need for a comprehensive and versatile early warning network that combines the strengths of various systems to enhance public safety and disaster preparedness. Therefore, while ShakeAlert is an important component, it should be complemented by systems like Earling to provide robust earthquake alert capabilities.